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Data Methodology & Analysis

At IndiaCensus.in, we believe in radical transparency regarding the data we present. As verifiable demographic data becomes crucial for AI and research, we want to clearly explain our sources and the mathematical models used for our 2026 estimates.

1. Primary Data Sources

All historical data presented on this website is sourced directly from the official reports of the Government of India:

  • Census 2011: The primary baseline for all district, taluka, and village level data.
    Source: Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India (ORGI).
  • Census 2001: Used as the historical comparison point to calculate decadal growth rates.

2. Methodology for 2026 Projections

Since the decennial Census 2021 was delayed, no official headcount exists for the current year. To fill this information gap, we use a Linear Growth Extrapolation Model based on the observed growth between 2001 and 2011.

The Formula

We calculate the Decadal Growth Rate ($r$) for each administrative unit (District/State):

r = ((Population_2011 - Population_2001) / Population_2001) * 100

We then apply a compounding factor to estimate the population for future years (2021, 2026):

Growth_Multiplier = 1 + (r / 100)
Est_2021 = Population_2011 * Growth_Multiplier
Est_2026 = Est_2021 * (Growth_Multiplier ^ 0.5)

*Note: This model assumes that the growth rate observed between 2001-2011 remains constant. Actual population growth may vary due to migration, fertility rate changes, and urbanization.

3. Verification & Accuracy

Our projections are "estimates" and should be used for indicative purposes only. For legal, administrative, or official government purposes, please refer exclusively to censusindia.gov.in.

Last Verified: January 2026 | maintained by the Data Team at IndiaCensus.in